I recently wrote that the Oroville Dam was due to overtop by the end of March -- and it maybe could have! -- but the dam engineers cranked up the spillway discharge enough to exceed the inflow to the dam's reservoir, with the result that the water level went down slightly. It now stands at about 859 feet, and has once again begun slowly rising, 41 feet short of a full pool at 900 feet. For inflow, outflow and Oroville reservoir height, please see here:
And here, for reservoir water level and recent year comparisons:
In recent days, the dam engineers have started to release water from the dam's spillway in the range of about 7,600 cubic feet per second (cfs) to 10,500 cfs, well below the spillway's designed capacity, and noticeably below the rate of water inflow to the reservoir.
This raises questions. Why such a slow discharge? Is there something wrong with the spillway, or the spillway gates or spillway gatehouse structure? The reservoir level is at 859 feet and slowly rising, and this spells potential trouble on the following two counts:
1) April and May are the months when most of the big, spring runoff snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada occurs; and
2) this year has arguably the largest snowpack in the Sierra Nevada since hydrologists have been making measurements (70 years or so). It's huge. For instance, see:
California's snowpack: Get ready for the perilous 'big melt'
The perilous big melt.
No doubt about it.
Here's a graphic depiction of the immense amount of frozen water that is looming in the Sierra Nevada, about to massively melt and pour out of the mountains in the coming weeks.
Click on the link. The band of red and purple in the eastern part of the state represents this year's, monster, Sierra Nevada snowpack. Consult the color legend for snow depth parameters: hundreds of miles of rugged mountains blanketed in 4 feet to more than 12 feet of snow.
Spring is here. As the temperatures climb all of that snow will melt and rush down into California's Central Valley, flooding farmland, roads, highways, bridges and other infrastructure, and possibly overtopping levees and dams, up and down the state, from Burney and Redding in the north, all the way down to Visalia and Bakersfield in the south.
This year's snowmelt runoff will be huge. What is about to happen in California will have impacts, ramifications and repercussions far beyond California. The effects will not be trivial. Flooded farmland, with consequent, great reduction of fruit, nut and vegetable production will be among the hardest blows. The Central Valley of California is perhaps the most productive agricultural region in the U$$A -- but not if it's underwater.
If the Oroville Dam/spillway/emergency weir/Edward Hyatt Powerplant complex suffers a catastrophic failure due to the impending, huge snowmelt, then that will severely impact water supply in California for millions of people, and thousands of businesses.
If all were well at the Oroville Dam/spillway/emergency weir/Edward Hyatt Powerplant complex, I tend to think that the dam's operators would right now be releasing more than 7,500 cfs to 10,500 cfs of water, in the face of the looming, historic snowmelt that will soon flood down from the mountains.
But they are not! Do they fear a spillway failure, or spillway gates or spillway gatehouse failure, if they release more water? It's puzzling.
But what do I know? I'm just some guy in South America, looking on from afar. Maybe the dam experts have everything under control.
All should become clearer over the next 55 days. (Or possibly more chaotic.....)
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